Ongoing Research
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SUNGEO: Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive
Kollman, Kenneth (PI) and Yuri M. Zhukov (co-PI). “SUNGEO: Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive.” Data infrastructure, 2022.
National Science Foundation RIDIR Grant (SES-1925693).
R package (CRAN) | R package (GitHub)
Abstract
Research on political, social, and economic behavior and phenomena increasingly depends on combining multiple distinct sources of sub-national data, which are often collected at disparate spatial scales and units of analysis. Using different methods of linking data, not to mention different data sources, can affect inferences. Yet analysts' critical decisions on both dimensions are often ad hoc and driven mainly by the idiosyncratic needs and constraints of a particular project. These practices reduce the reliability, transparency, and replicability of empirical research. The Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive (SUNGEO) will relieve bottlenecks in research by integrating multiple sources of sub-national data in a common data repository at multiple, customizable spatio-temporal scales, and developing a suite of methods for data processing and analysis. This infrastructure includes three main components. First is a user-friendly web interface, where researchers can select among many pre-loaded variables [e.g. elections, violent events, weather, land use, public health outcomes], choose levels and methods of spatio-temporal (dis)aggregation, interpolation and integration, and easily construct their own sub-national datasets. Second is an open-source software package, in the R statistical programming language, that processes user-supplied data, merges them with pre-loaded geo-referenced data, and produces a more customizable output based on user needs and specifications. Third is an archiving tool, which allows users to contribute original data to the repository.Working Papers
Fratricidal Coercion in Modern War
Lyall, Jason, and Yuri M. Zhukov. “Fratricidal Coercion in Modern War.” Working paper, 2023.
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Abstract
Armies as diverse as the Red Army, Syrian Arab Army, and the Islamic State have turned their weapons against their own soldiers to force them to fight. There is little systematic evidence on how this fratricidal coercion affects battlefield performance. We argue that such practices generate compliance through fear, compelling soldiers with variable levels of resolve to conform to a uniform standard of battlefield behavior. First, coercion keeps some reluctant soldiers on the battlefield. This reduces rates of desertion, disappearances, and premature surrender, but increases deaths and injuries, as these reluctant warriors now find themselves in harm's way. Second, fratricidal coercion lowers the resolve of more committed soldiers, leading to lost battlefield initiative, and fewer acts of bravery. We test our claims using a mixed-method strategy, drawing on (1) monthly panel data on 1,048 Soviet Rifle Divisions in 1941--45, built from millions of declassified personnel files; (2) a paired comparison of two Rifle Divisions at the Battle of Leningrad (1941); and (3) 526 land battles (1939--2011) to assess generalizability. We find that fratricidal coercion reduces battlefield flight but increases casualties and suppresses initiative.Are Competitive Elections Good for Your Health? Evidence from the 1918 Flu and Covid-19
Walden, Jacob, and Yuri M. Zhukov. “Are Competitive Elections Good for Your Health? Evidence from the 1918 Flu and Covid-19.” Working paper, 2021.
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Abstract
Do more electorally vulnerable government officials respond to public health emergencies more aggressively than officials in less competitive seats? Using novel data on local government responses to the 1918 influenza A (H1N1) "Spanish Flu" and 2020 Covid-19 pandemics in the United States, we study how the competitiveness of federal, state and local elections shapes the policy choices of incumbents. We find that, in 1918, vulnerable incumbents enacted more and longer nonpharmaceutical interventions (e.g. quarantines, closures), enforcing them more aggressively than in less-competitive jurisdictions. Their constituents subsequently experienced fewer influenza-related deaths and lower overall excess mortality. In 2020, more competitive constituencies similarly experienced lower rates of Covid-19 infection and death, but they implemented fewer nonpharmaceutical interventions and relied more on pharmaceutical measures. This policy substitution was feasible in part due to political geography: more competitive localities became more suburban, and more conducive to social distancing in the absence of government mandates.Political Regime Type and Warfare: Evidence from 600 Years of European History
Blank, Meredith, Mark Dincecco and Yuri M. Zhukov. “Political Regime Type and Warfare: Evidence from 600 Years of European History.” Working paper, 2017.
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Abstract
This paper presents new evidence that, historically, the relationship between political regime type and warfare was different than it is today. Using a novel database of interstate conflict in Europe between 1200 and 1800, we perform the first quantitative analysis of domestic political institutions and warfare across the pre-modern era. We find that early parliamentary regimes -- the institutional predecessors of modern democracies -- were disproportionately more likely to experience armed conflict than their absolutist counterparts. Our empirical strategy makes use of two complementary approaches: a standard dyadic analysis of conflict initiation, and a dynamic network analysis that accounts for interdependence between dyads. These analyses show that early parliamentary regimes fought in significantly more wars than absolutist monarchies, both against one another and overall. Such regimes, we argue, had a relatively large capacity to make war, but, unlike modern democracies, not enough institutional constraints to prevent it.How Selective Reporting Shapes Inferences about Conflict
Zhukov, Yuri M. and Matthew A. Baum. “How Selective Reporting Shapes Inferences about Conflict.” Working paper, 2017.
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