Today’s objectives

 

  1. Evaluate: importance of balance of power in ground warfare
  2. Discuss: Soviet strategy heading into the Winter War
  3. Analyze: decisive factors in conduct/outcome of Winter War

Balance of Power in War

Predictors of victory and defeat in battle (from last lecture)

Balance of power Force employment Geography Information Chance
numbers doctrine distance surprise weather
replacement of losses strategy terrain intelligence timing
industry/production training climate analysis luck
logistics officer quality roads communication
natural resources technology fortifications

Long Term vs. Short Term Balance

Element of power: Productive capacity

  1. Benefits
    1. absorb costs of mistakes
    2. replace losses
    3. accumulate superiority in numbers
  2. Requirements
    1. time to mobilize resources
    2. access to raw materials
    3. access to capital goods
    4. standardized production
    5. serial manufacture
    6. assembly line, automation
    7. ability to utilize unskilled labor


 

 

 

Machine building

Example: USSR

  1. Economic realities
    1. virtually self-sufficient
    2. mostly unaffected by opportunity cost of lost trade
    3. low procurement, O&M costs
    4. economy already militarized
    5. large population, territory
  2. Political realities
    1. central planning
    2. few political shocks from declining consumer economy
    3. less vulnerable to friction with industry


 

 

 

Liniya zbirky

Example: Germany

  1. Economic realities
    1. reliance on imports (esp. energy)
    2. difficulty extracting resources from occupied territories
    3. limited labor & materials
    4. no mobilization plans for many industries
    5. higher O&M costs for equipment
    6. factories in Allied bomber range
  2. Political realities
    1. limits on rearmament until 1933
    2. inter-ministry (and inter-service) competition for resources and control of production
    3. frequent duplication of effort
    4. friction between industry & military
    5. uncertainty over extent of Hitler’s ambitions


 

 

 

 

 

Fliessband

 

 

 

 

USSR vs. Germany

 

Soviet victory seems inevitable, at least in the long term…

 

but what if there is no “long term”?


 

 

 

Death to occupiers

Balance of Power in 1939

Balance of power in 1939: Demographics

Name Population
USSR 170,315,000
USA 131,028,000
Germany 79,798,000
Japan 71,380,000
UK 47,762,000
Italy 44,020,000
France 41,900,000
Poland 35,486,000
Finland 3,700,000
Lithuania 2,710,000
Latvia 1,990,000
Estonia 1,141,000
Name Urbanization (%)
UK 39
Germany 30
USA 29
Japan 29
USSR 21
Latvia 20
Italy 19
Estonia 15
France 15
Poland 11
Finland 8
Lithuania 4

Balance of power in 1939: Military

Name Military personnel
Germany 2,750,000
USSR 1,789,000
Japan 957,000
Italy 581,000
France 581,000
UK 394,000
USA 334,000
Poland 275,000
Finland 37,000
Latvia 29,000
Lithuania 27,000
Estonia 15,000
Name Military expenditures ($)
Germany 12,000,000,000
UK 7,895,671,000
USSR 5,984,123,000
Japan 1,699,970,000
France 1,023,651,000
USA 980,000,000
Poland 968,472,000
Italy 669,412,000
Finland 68,491,000
Lithuania 11,230,000
Latvia 8,432,000
Estonia 5,123,000

Balance of power in 1939: Industry


Name Iron and steel
USA 47,898
Germany 23,733
USSR 17,564
UK 13,433
France 7,950
Japan 6,696
Italy 2,283
Poland 504
Finland 77
Latvia 2
Lithuania 0
Estonia 0


Balance of power in 1939: Composite Index of National Capability


Name CINC score
USA 0.182
Germany 0.178
USSR 0.138
UK 0.100
Japan 0.059
France 0.040
Italy 0.027
Poland 0.018
Finland 0.002
Latvia 0.001
Lithuania 0.001
Estonia 0.001


Rospil

  • Why sign non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany?
  • Why annex these territories instead of neutral “buffer”?

Winter War

 

 

Political context

  1. pre-1939: neutral states in Baltic and Scandinavia
  2. Fall 1939: USSR stations troops, annexes Baltic States
  3. Soviet interests in Finland:
    • access to Baltic Sea
    • security of Leningrad
    • security of Murmansk
  4. USSR offers land swap
    (10 percent of Finland’s territory)
  5. Finland makes counteroffer
    (partial concession on isthmus)
  6. USSR refuses, negotiations stop


 

Soviet offer

 

 

Geography

  1. Distance
    1. 1300km shared border
    2. 400km Leningrad to Helsinki
  2. Terrain
    1. 1000s of lakes, bodies of water
    2. thick pine forests
  3. Climate
    1. sub-Arctic climate
    2. winter conditions
  4. Roads
    1. very few paved roads
    2. even fewer multi-lane roads
  5. Fortifications
    1. Mannerheim Line on Karelian Isthmus


 

 

 

The terrain

The line

Soviet Plans

Soviet War Plans

 

Desired end state:

  1. Regime change
    1. remove Mannerheim from power
    2. install Soviet puppet government
      (“Finnish Democratic Republic”)
  2. Secure territorial concessions
    1. Karelian Isthmus
    2. Baltic Islands
    3. far north

Options:

  1. Shaposhnikov Plan
    1. concentrated attack
    2. narrow front
  2. Voroshilov Plan
    1. attack everywhere
    2. wide front
    3. short duration (12 days)


 

Shaposhnikov

Voroshilov

Shaposhnikov plan


Voroshilov plan

Discussion:

  1. Which plan would you have chosen?
  2. Which plan appealed more to Stalin, and why?

Plans Meet Reality

Reference guide to military map unit symbols (ground warfare)

Symbol Echelon Troops Commander rank
\(\bullet\) Squad 8-15 Sergeant
\(\bullet\bullet\bullet\) Platoon 20-60 2nd/1st Lieutenant
I Company 100-250 Captain/Major
II Battalion 500-600 Lt Colonel
III Regiment 1,000-3,000 Colonel
X Brigade 3,000-5,000 Colonel/Brigadier
XX Division 10,000-20,000 Maj General
XXX Corps 40,000-100,000 Lt General
XXXX Army 200,000-500,000 General
XXXXX Army Group 500,000-1,000,000 Field Marshal

 

Infantry

Armor

Mechanized infantry

Artillery

Airborne

Cavalry (Recon)

Order of Battle, December 1939

 

 

Soviet Union

  1. Numbers
    1. 760K troops
    2. 2300 tanks
    3. 2500 aircraft
  2. Force structure
    1. 6 armored divisions
    2. 24 infantry divisions
    3. organized into 5 armies:
      • 7th (isthmus)
      • 13th (isthmus)
      • 8th (south)
      • 9th (center)
      • 14th (north)


 

 

Finland

  1. Numbers
    1. 250K troops
    2. 30 tanks
    3. 130 aircraft
  2. Force structure
    1. 10 infantry divisions
    2. organized into 2 armies,
      1 corps, smaller units
      • Kannas (isthmus)
      • Mannerheim (south)
      • IV Corps (south)
      • ind. companies, battalions (north/center)

 

Phase I (Nov 30 - Jan 6)

  1. North
    1. 80:1 Soviet advantage in #s
    2. Soviets quickly capture beachhead
  2. Center
    1. 9th Army struggles to advance
      (eg. Suomussalmi)
  3. Isthmus & South
    1. largest grouping of Soviet forces
    2. main effort on Karelian isthmus
      (slow progress)
    3. secondary effort above Lake Ladoga

First month

Battle of Suomussalmi

Tymoshenko offensive

 

Phase II (Jan 6 - Mar 1)

  1. Change of command
    1. Voroshilov replaced by Tymoshenko as NKO (MOD)
    2. Shaposhnikov given full operational command
  2. Change of strategy
    1. Shaposhnikov plan put in effect
  3. Breakthrough
    1. Red Army breaches Line, establishes beachhead in Viipuri
    2. Finns ask for armistice
    3. agree to original Soviet
      territorial demands

The toll (killed, wounded, captured)

  • USSR: 447,444
  • Finland: 70,461
  • 1:6 loss-exchange ratio


 

 

 

Worth the cost?

What was decisive in the Winter War? (and what wasn’t?)

Balance of power Force employment Geography Information Chance
numbers doctrine distance surprise weather
replacement of losses strategy terrain intelligence timing
industry/production training climate analysis luck
logistics officer quality roads communication
natural resources technology fortifications

 

  1. Balance of power
    (Soviet advantage)
    1. 3:1 advantage in personnel
    2. 76:1 advantage in tanks
    3. 19:1 advantage in aircraft
    4. Finland had 21 days of ammo
    5. Soviets packed 12 days worth
      (but they had more back home)
  2. Force employment
    (Finnish advantage)
    1. Soviet officer purges stifled initiative
    2. Soviet “hold your ground” doctrine quickly wasted ammo
    3. Finnish emphasis on tactical improvisation


 

 

 

Secret weapon?

 

  1. Geography
    (Finnish advantage)
    1. Mannerheim Line
    2. excellent defensive terrain
    3. dense pine forests
    4. limited roads, mobility
    5. no Soviet mobility off road
  2. Information
    (Finnish advantage)
    1. Finnish knowledge of local terrain
    2. Finnish knowledge of Soviet/Russian army
  3. Chance
    (Finnish advantage?)
    1. coldest winter in 30 years
    2. frozen truck, tank engines
    3. frostbitten soldiers


 

 

Kholod

NEXT MEETING

 

USSR at War: Barbarossa to Moscow (Tu, Oct. 28)

  • why was USSR so unprepared for Germany’s invasion?
  • how did ideology impact conduct of war, rules of engagement?
  • what prevented the Red Army from collapsing?