Today’s objectives

 

  1. Introduce: basic terms of reference for military analysis
  2. Discuss: merits of different measures of effectiveness
  3. Consider: how requirements for a “short, lightning war” differ from those of a “long war of attrition”

The Ends

Levels of Analysis

Three levels of war
(Soviet/Russian counterparts in grey)  

  1. Strategic (operational-strategic)
    1. how to win war
    2. objectives: destroy enemy armed forces, will to fight
    3. units (ob’edineniya): theaters, army groups, fronts
  2. Operational (operational-tactical)
    1. how to win campaign
    2. objectives: reach/gain territory
    3. units (ob’edineniya/soedineniya): armies, corps
  3. Tactical (tactical)
    1. how to win battle
    2. objectives: take hill, trench
    3. units (soedineniya/podrazdeleniya): division, brigade, battalion


 

 

 

Wrong approach

Comparative military units (ground warfare): US/NATO, USSR/RF

Symbol Name Troops Commander
\(\bullet\) Squad 8-15 Sergeant
Otdelenie 6-12 Serzhant
\(\bullet\bullet\bullet\) Platoon 20-60 2nd/1st Lieutenant
Vzvod 18-48 Praporshchik/(Mladshiy) Leytenant
I Company 100-250 Captain/Major
Rota 40-110 Kapitan/Mayor
II Battalion 500-600 Lt Colonel
Batal’on 400-700 Podpolkovnik
III Regiment 1,000-3,000 Colonel
Polk 500-2,500 Polkovnik
X Brigade 3,000-5,000 Colonel/Brigadier
Brigada 1,000-3,000 Polkovnik
XX Division 10,000-20,000 Maj General
Diviziya 6,000-12,000 General-Mayor
XXX Corps 40,000-100,000 Lt General
Korpus 15,000-50,000 General-Leytenant
XXXX Army 200,000-500,000 General
Armiya 100,000-120,000 General-Polkovnik/General Armii
XXXXX Army Group 500,000-1,000,000 Field Marshal
Front 900,000-1,300,000 General Armii/Marshal

Winning battles, losing wars  

  1. Aggregation problem
    1. tactical victory \(\neq\) strategic victory
    2. tactical brilliance can be in service of deeply flawed strategies
    3. tactical superiority can prolong war past point where strategic success is possible
  2. Loss of strategic initiative
    1. losing side gradually loses ability to make strategic decisions, then operational decisions


 

 

 

Desert outfoxed

Measures of Effectiveness

How can we tell if we’re winning?

  1. Loss-based metrics
    1. losses inflicted (“body counts”)
    2. ratio of enemy/friendly losses (loss-exchange ratio, LER)
    3. ratio of civilian-to-military losses
  2. Geographic metrics
    1. area of territory gained or lost
  3. Temporal metrics
    1. duration of operation/battle
  4. Political metrics
    1. political concessions from enemy
    2. popular support
    3. political “end state” reached

Discussion

  • Are some MOE’s better than others?
  • Which are appropriate for strategic vs. operational or tactical levels?


 

 

 

Avoid this

The Means

Predictors of Victory and Defeat in Battle

Balance of power Force employment Geography Information Chance
numbers doctrine distance surprise weather
replacement of losses strategy terrain intelligence timing
industry/production training climate analysis luck
logistics officer quality roads communication
natural resources technology fortifications

Balance of power

  1. Numbers
    1. which side has numerical superiority?
  2. Replacement of losses
    1. which side can more easily recover from attrition?
  3. Industrial capacity
    1. which side can produce at scale?
  4. Natural resources
    1. which side has access to more raw materials?
  5. Logistics
    1. which side can deploy troops and deliver supplies cheaper & faster?


 

 

 

Outproduce to win

Force employment

  1. Doctrine
    1. which side is more prepared for expected type of combat?
  2. Strategy
    1. which side has smarter/clearer vision for how to win war?
  3. Training
    1. are troops ready and able to implement the chosen strategy?
  4. Officer & NCO quality
    1. are small team leaders capable of independent decisions?
    2. how well is discipline maintained?
    3. are senior leaders capable of managing large-scale maneuvers?
  5. Technology
    1. which side has more modern and/or efficient equipment?


 

 

 

Outtrain to win

Geography

  1. Distance
    1. how distant is the theater?
    2. how wide is the front?
  2. Terrain
    1. how severe are natural obstacles to mobility/visibility? (mountains, forests, swamps, river crossings)
  3. Climate
    1. how will heat/cold/humidity affect troops, equipment?
  4. Roads
    1. how many avenues of approach, ground lines of communication (GLOCs) are available?
    2. what is the capacity of the roads?
    3. how secure are the roads?
  5. Fortifications
    1. how robust are man-made obstacles vs. advancing troops?


 

 

 

Bezdorizhzhya

Information

  1. Surprise
    1. which side can better elude other’s expectations?
  2. Intelligence collection
    1. which side has more information on enemy capabilities, actions?
  3. Intelligence analysis
    1. which side can better separate signal from noise?
  4. Communications
    1. which side can more effectively coordinate across/within units (horizontal)?
    2. which side has more efficiently communicate orders, feedback up/down the chain (vertical)?


 

 

 

Signal & noise

Fortune

  1. Weather
    1. how might inclement weather affect mobility, visibility, operational tempo?
  2. Timing
    1. which side managed to show up at right place and right time?
  3. Luck
    1. which way is the wind blowing?
    2. who woke up with a migraine?
    3. whose rifle jammed?
    4. why did birds strike jet engine?


 

 

 

Lucky you

Requirements for Short vs. Long Wars

Case study: Blitzkrieg (lightning war)

  1. Political-economic strategy
    1. short, decisive military campaigns vs. weak, isolated opponents
    2. war “on cheap”, without total mobilization of society, economy
  2. Operational concept
    (attack, breakthrough, envelop)
    1. tanks smash weak point in defenses, encircle enemy troops
    2. motorized infantry consolidate gains, free tanks for next advance
    3. regular infantry arrives, frees motorized units for next advance
    4. tactical air power
      • destroy enemy air force
      • disrupt communications
      • close air support


 

 

 

Speed kills


Which resource/capability is advantageous for which contingency?

 

  1. Large population
  2. Natural resources
  3. Industrial capacity
  1. Strategic lift capabilities
  2. Rapid decision cycles
  3. Combined arms warfare
  1. Decentralized command & control
  2. Junior officer training
  3. Small unit initiative
  1. Visionary generals
  2. Democracy
  3. Economic self-sufficiency

 

 


The choices are:

 

 

Short War

 

Long War

 

Neither/Both

NEXT MEETING

 

USSR at War: Stalin’s Bid for Strategic Depth (Th, Oct. 24)

  • why did USSR enter into non-aggression pact with Germany?
  • what explains initial Soviet battlefield failures vs Finland?
  • what explains the eventual outcome of the Soviet-Finnish War?